I hope this character ain't looking for any federal grants anytime soon. His name is Brendan Nyhan, and he's purportedly a scholar in Health Policy Research at the University of Michigan. And his latest research is most ominous to Obama's current status as the clear favorite to win the 2012 presidential election over whomever the mostly hapless republicans stick in there to challenge him.Nyhan's new report says that Obama has a 95-100% chance of being rocked by a presidential scandal next summer if Obama manages to escape scandal before that. And Nyhan can back it up: Dude has his own mathematical formula -- not to mention plenty of charts and graphs! (No word whether Ross Perot and Karl Rove commissioned his study).
Nyhan fascinatingly points out that Obama has been most lucky so far -- going almost as long as any president in 30 years without being hit by his first true scandal. (Sorry, but Obama forgetting what year it was last week doesn't quite count).
Says Nyhan's report: "In the 1977-2008 period, the longest that a president has gone without having a scandal featured in a front-page Washington Post article is 34 months -- the period between when President [George W.] Bush took office in January 2001 and the Valerie Plame scandal in October 2003." Obama is almost to 30 months right now.
Nyhan predicts that Obama "will follow a similar trajectory to Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton (who both suffered significant first-term scandals)." But a caveat! Nyhan says that Obama may have at least one prayer of avoiding a first-term scandal: A complicit and heavily left-leaning American "mainstream" media. Damn pesky media bias.
Specifically, Nyhan says that: "Obama is treated more favorably by the media compared to his predecessors because he is America's first black president."
But I have to say I disagree with the good professor on that one: I think that undeniable bias has little to do with race, and everything to do with the "D" next to his name. Hillary would've gotten largely the same level of complicity and advocacy from the so-called "mainstreamers."
And there's another thing that Nyhan admits might save Obama: "The direction of media coverage in the coming months." Nyhan says that the media has been largely distracted by huge stories during Obama's tenure (e.g., Bin Laden's assassination, the Gulf oil spill, the ongoing Arab Fling, etc.), and he says that the continuation of that pattern could help to keep a lid on any pending or upcoming Obama scandal.
Says Nyhan on this point: "Continued unrest in the Middle East or other news events could also dampen the odds of a scandal breaking."
You here that, Obama? Better ratchet up our bullshit neo-con involvement in Libya and consider taking the fight to Syria!!! Your re-election may depend on it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1391859/The-math-proves-Obama-set-scandal-SOON.html
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