…And that's even if the billionaire real estate mogul never runs as an Independent. More on that subject in a moment. But first, I have some observations about Donald Trump's recent antics and rising poll numbers: I get the sense that the democrat party is starting to become just a little bit concerned with ol' Donald. And with good reason, methinks. Absent New Jersey Governor Chris Christie throwing his hat into the ring (which probably won't happen), I believe that Trump may be the only republican with a prayer of beating sitting president Obama in 2012 (and wouldn't Melania Knauss-Trump be the hottest First Lady in history?). We'll get to that too. But let's take this step by step.
The Republican Nomination
You might say that it's not even clear that Trump's going to run. But all signs strongly point to him running. And if he does, he has at least a decent chance of capturing the republican nomination. A poll over the past week had Trump at #2 among potential republican candidates and not far off the leader, Mitt Romney. Then Tuesday I saw a CNN poll that has him tied for #1 with Huckabee. He's now a player.
Call Trump crazy, if you will (and I think a certain aspect of him is crazy), but he's also crazy like a fox. ("That dude's a gen-ee-us!") Look at all his recent "birther" rhetoric. No coincidence his polls have simultaneously gone through the roof, which is attributable to deranged right-winger tea partiers finally having someone lend credibility to the now completely debunked notion that Obama was born in Kenya.
Trump shoots up in the polls, and he gets away with talking about such lunacy. And only he could. If Palin or Romney or one of the conventional potential republican candidates started talking a bunch of birther (is that like talking turkey?), then they would get crucified by the media.
But Trump's a different kind of creature. He's a bona fide celebrity who's been well known to the American people for a quarter century. The guy's got a Star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame for cryin' out loud! The media doesn't treat him like it treats Palins and Romneys.
And Trump is also viewed as a political outsider, which he largely is. Americans love that sort of thing, and the media is intrigued by it. That means he can play outside of deranged right-winger land to a significant extent.
But he's also been playing inside of it, which is necessary to capture the GOP nomination. I've heard a number of the right-wing talking heads – people such as Rush Slimebaugh, Michael Savage and Sean Hannity – all speak in generally favorable terms about Trump.
So this guy is dangerous. He could win the GOP nomination. If you think that's crazy, then I’m sorry – you're simply uninformed. Even if Trump doesn't win it, I am so looking forward to the high entertainment of Trump participating in the GOP primary debates. That's gonna be great! Sort of like when Al Sharpton ran for the democrat party nomination. I agree with Sharpton on virtually nothing, but that crazy cat was really mixing things up in the primary debates. Classic.
The General Election
And what if Trump can win the GOP nomination? Then the fun really begins. Sorry, but I doubt any of the boring white male retreads or never-were potential republican candidates (Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich, etc.) have much chance of beating Obama – who has the huge advantage of being a sitting president and a political machine in place that is looking to raise a billion dollars to throw at the 2012 campaign.
Trump might be the only republican who could beat Obama. Obama's never had to contend with the likes of Trump – a fast-talking, political outsider celebrity who’s liable to say or do anything. Put another way, Trump's a complete wildcard, and I think that makes the democrat party nervous. Not to mention, who’s the one candidate who could match Obama’s big money with money of his own? That would be Trump.
The democrat party underestimates Trump at their own peril. But alas, despite their current public rhetoric downplaying and insulting Trump, I don’t think they are (or will) underestimate him. I call the leftist 20 percenters many things, but just plain stupid is usually not one of those things.
Potential Run as an Independent
All of that now on the table, what about this Wall Street Journal story quoting Trump this week as saying that he will "probably" run as an Independent if he fails to capture the GOP nomination? As I've said before regarding Trump -- go for it. I tend to doubt that I would vote for him (although I rarely say never), but I would love to see him in some three-way presidential debates. That would be fun.
Trump also says he thinks he "could possibly win as an Independent." But that's where the odds would be most against him. In American history, the best performance of any third-party presidential candidate was to capture a paltry 27% of the popular vote – and that was a political heavyweight, i.e. former president and larger-than-life personality Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. Roosevelt ran in the self-coined "Bull Moose" Party and split the republican vote, which swept far leftist democrat Woodrow Wilson right into power.
Truth be told, instead of becoming president, the effect of Trump running as an Independent probably hands reelection to Obama. That's because Trump will similarly divide the republican vote, while the leftist 20 percenters will rally their typical coalitions without any divisions. (Trump's only hope might be a general election shift to the center to try to peel off Obama-voting Independents and "moderate" democrats).
Sort of 1912 and 1992 all over again, and a complete nightmare for the right-wingers. It must be more than just a bit ominous for republicans that 2012 falls exactly 100 years after Roosevelt's failed bid and exactly 20 years after the failed third-party campaign of one Ross Perot.
Trump is aware of this and notes that republicans "are very concerned that I [may] run as an Independent." So why would Trump want to derail the GOP nominee like that? Pretty simple, I think. Dude's an egomaniac. He couldn't care less about the GOP nominee (which I can admire just a bit). This thing is about him, not the republican party.
Not to mention, Trump's been paying a bit too much attention to Charlie Sheen, apparently. Concerning why he might run as an Independent, Trump spouted: "I like winning."
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/04/11/trump-will-probably-run-as-independent-if-he-doesnt-win-gop-nomination/tab/print/
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