The Drudge Report calls the new poll a "Shock Poll" (link to full story at bottom), although I don't really find anything shocking about it. However, I do disagree with it since I think the odds of Obama being reelected are a hell of a lot higher than most people think. At this point, a full two years out, I'm going to go ahead and handicap Obama's chances at 50/50. Here's why:First, I think it likely we'll see some improvement in the economy and the unemployment rate over the next two years. That will mean some bump in the bad polling numbers that Obama has been pulling over the last year plus. Second, with the new Congress, Obama no longer has the power to foist massive unpopular leftist legislation down our throats. The leftist who can't act is the leftist who can't offend (or at least not nearly as much as if he had the ability to act).
But here's the most important factor for why Obama has as good of a chance as anyone of winning the 2012 presidential election: His republican opponent. As a preliminary matter, if Sarah Palin runs and can somehow obtain the GOP nomination (which I do think is a real longshot), then game over: Four more years for Obama.
But even in the likely event that Palin is not the GOP nominee, the remainder of the GOP field leaves much to be desired -- essentially a motley crew of boring white male retreads, has-beens and never-weres: Newt Gingrich; Mitt Romney; Mike Huckabee; Tim Pawlenty; and Haley Barbour. Nothing says excitement and energy quite like that particular cast of characters!
Now, do the republicans have some up-and-coming talent that just might be dangerous in a presidential run? Most def. But men of action such as Chris Christie and Paul Ryan, and men of soaring rhetoric such as Marco Rubio, won't be running in 2012. So let's give Obama at least a 50/50 shot in 2012, and perhaps I'm even underestimating his chances.
Final comment: I'm largely an impartial observer in this whole thing. As an Independent, and following what we've witnessed the past two years, there's only one thing that matters to me in this rotten two-party system with which we must deal: Balance of power.
I think Obama, along with W Bush, is one of the two worst presidents of my lifetime, but it's not like the GOP is going to be putting up some wonderful candidate in 2012, because they won't be. If Obama is reelected, then so be it, just so long as the democrat party never again has supermajorities in the House and Senate along with a democrat party president. That was the primary issue in the 2010 midterm elections, and it will likely be the most important issue for me and many Independents for the rest of our days.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45136.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/15/AR2010111506597.html
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