The linked Politico.com analysis takes much the same tone as I'm seeing from dems and their media today; that is, that last night's victory by dem Mark Critz over his republican challenger in the Pennsylvania 12th District's special election (to fill the House seat of the deceased John Murtha) shows that November really won't be that bad for DC dems in the House and Senate.
Problem is, PA 12 is not your typical congressional district, and the race that Critz won was just as atypical. PA 12 is a district in which registered dems outnumber repubs two-to-one, yet the district voted for McCain in 2008. Why? Because a lot of the dems in this district are pretty damn conservative, truth be told. That's why Critz basically ran on a republican platform (which I suspect was likely very disingenuous on his part), such that the tone of the race much more resembled a republican primary than the typical general election congressional race. Obama himself got nowhere near this race, because that would have been distastrous for Critz. There was also no incumbent involved in this race. Given these various facts, are dems really going to try to tell me that this race was typical of the ones that will be occurring nationwide this fall? Please.
But make no mistake: Repubs are just as delusional about what's going in the country right now as the dems are. There is not some massive wave of non-republicans looking to join the repub party. Repubs are not much more popular now than they were in 2008. Instead, what you have now from a huge swath of the electorate, including massive numbers of Independents (the ones who decide elections) and even many of the conservative tea partiers, is a two-pronged sentiment that is a major nightmare for DC Dems and incumbent republicans alike: (1) Intense fear of the dem-controlled federal government and far left direction that Obama & The Dems have been trying to ram down the throats of an electorate that largely wants no part of it; and (2) Distinct distaste for both of these parties, their current officeholders, and the broken political system over which they preside and gatekeep with an iron fist.
The result of this sentiment come primary time and come November may be the biggest sweeping away of incumbents (of both parties) of any congressional election in my lifetime. No incumbent dem or repub is safe (which I think is wonderful, by the way). So what's the bottom line from the massive kicking to the curb of incumbents this fall? Well, there will be very significant republican gains in the House and Senate, since dems hold the big majorities and will therefore be impacted most by the anti-incumbent fervor. I went on record a month or two ago predicting my belief that dems will likely lose the House but not the Senate. Absolutely nothing's changed. And we Independents continue to look very forward to November. Stick that in your Critz and smoke it.